Elections for the President of the Camara
Severino Cavalcanti renounced last week as federal deputy and as president of the camara. The law requires a new president to be elected within 5 legislative days, which means that today we will know who the next president will be. The election is by runoff majority vote. If no candidate receives 257 votes, there will be a runoff election.
Although about ten candidates are competing for the position, the race has narrowed down to essentially three candidates. José Thomaz Nonô (PFL-AL) is the main opposition candidate. He is currently the Vice-President (actually, temporarily President, since Severino stepped down) of the Camara. The PT and PCdoB are supporting Aldo Rebelo (PC do B-SP). Aldo was Lula’s minister for political relations (or something like that) but was outed in the last reshuffle. Finally, there is Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI). Considered the political heir of Severino, he is more centrist than the other two candidates.
Spatially, I think the competition looks like this:
The valence issue reflects how much the deputy will help or detract from the already shaken Camara reputation in the press and, most importantly, among voters. It is clear that a candidate from the opposition will help it the most, distancing the chamber somewhat from the government. It is also clear that the election of Ciro would be a reenactment of the election of Severino earlier this year. Although it is likely a mistake to say that Ciro is the same as Severino, they do represent the same parties and factions in Congress.
I think it is safe to say that Ciro will receive many less votes than what the press in Brazil has been claiming he would, perhaps 10%. In a 3 way race, the median voter can be squeezed by the outer candidates. The Executive’s actions so far demonstrate that it can be a quite powerful squeeze, by promising lots of pork to secure support from deputies (in particular from the PL) to Aldo.
The second round will probably happen. And then, it’s anyone’s guess. It depends on two things: a) on how much support the government can buy in the hours that follow; and b) how do deputies at the center expect next year’s elections to play out.