cluelessresearch.com

The past week in Brazil was marked by three main events. First, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Severino Cavalcanti (PP/PB), was forced to step down from office and renounce his mandate of Federal Deputy due to the emergence of strong evidences linking him to corruption charges. Second, due to the vacancy in the Presidency, a new election for President of the Chamber of Deputies was scheduled for Wednesday of next week. Two main candidates, Aldo Rebelo (PCdoB/SP), supported by the government, and José Thomas Nôno (PFL/AL), the opposition candidate, are campaigning hard for the position. Third, the Workers’ Party election for its national and state directorates is coming to a close and the candidate from the Campo Majoritário, Deputy Ricardo Berzoini is leading the race for president of the party. It is not yet decided, but apparently Raul Pont, state deputy from Rio Grande do Sul and from the left wing faction Democracia Socialista will defeat Valter Pomar from the Articulação de Esquerda in the race for the second round of the elections.

What are the main implications of these events for Brazilian politics? First, Cavalcanti, the first president of the Chamber of Deputies in Brazilian history forced to step down from office because of a corruption scandal, surrendered his mandate claiming that he would return to Congress in the next election and that the people of Pernambuco are the only ones who have the right to judge him. By stepping down, Cavalcanti avoids the harsh punishment of being expelled from office, which implies the loss of political rights for 8 years. Cavalcanti can run again next year and will probably win, returning to office like did senators Antonio Carlos Magalhaes (PFL-BA, re-elected as Senator), Jader Barbalho (PMDB-PA)and José Roberto Arruda (PFL-DF), who all returned elected as federal deputies. Federal deputies Carlos Rodrigues (PL-RJ) and Valdemar Costa Neto (PL-SP) renounced this month with the same purpose.

Clearly, if the Brazilian Congress wants to restore its moral dignity and the population’s respect, which is at its lowest levels according to Datafolha polls, something must be done to keep deputies from avoiding punishment by stepping down from office and then returning to office after the next election. Why voters end up supporting candidates involved in scandals is a different question that requires a more detailed discussion about the dynamics of the electoral system. But it is closely related to voters’ ability to obtain information about candidates and will be discussed soon, in other commentaries in this website.

The second implication is that the Workers’ Party seems to be completely dominated by the same group that was very closely involved in the current corruption scandal. The elections for local directorates still show that the main PT politicians involved in the mensalão scandal have managed to get their allies elected for local offices. Furthermore, the Campo Majoritário, the dominant faction of the party that is closely related to the scandal will win the first round of the election and will have to face a second round with more left-wing oriented factions. It is possible that if the left-wing factions unite in the second round, that Berzoini and the Campo Majoritário may loose. But there is no guarantee of that and continuity seems to be the most likely outcome. In addition, Rebelo, the main intermediary between the Lula government and Congress throughout the time of the scandal is now backed by the government in the race for the presidency of the Chamber. Maybe a candidate that was not so linked to the previous period would have been a better option.

There is good and bad on the current events inside PT. The good thing is that the current macro-economic stabilization with moderate growth, promoted by Palocci’s tenure in office will not be jeopardized. The bad thing is that the accused of corruption will still be controlling the internal mechanisms of decision making inside the PT, which may hinder the party’s capacity to punish those found guilty. The party and President Lula’s approval rates have shown a major drop in the latest polls. Until then, the President’s approval had been high despite the scandal. The question in the mind of analysts and pundits now is wether the good economic conditions will be enough for Lula and the PT to bounce back before the general elections next year.