Elections for the President of the Camara - Final Results
Aldo Rebelo (PC do B/SP) defeated José Thomaz Nonô (PFL/AL) by 15 votes in the runoff for the presidency of the chamber of deputies, last Wednesday night. In spite of the victory of the Lula administration, represented by the success of Rebelo, the tight margin reflects how hard it will be for the government to construct a supporting coalition in congress in this pre-electoral year.
In fact, the first signs are that it will be very hard to construct consensus around pressing issues. Take the political reform, for instance. Today is the last day for changes to be made in the electoral code in order for them to become effective in next year’s general elections. There was a growing agreement that a constitutional amendment was going to be voted today to extend the deadline for reform to December, so that Deputies could debate the several proposals in Congress’ agenda. Still, as of now, no agreement has been reached and it seems like no changes in the electoral rules will be implemented in 2006. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any kind of agreement will be reached by December.
Another factor that caught the media’s attention during this race was allegations of rampant use of pork barrel distribution and patronage in the weeks prior to the elections. According to speculations of the media, the use of pork and patronage was fundamental to assure Rebelo’s victory. Such claim is completely in line with a strand of research in Brazilian legislative politics that claims that a main mechanism of pork barrel politics in Brazil is the allocation of monies by the executive branch to fund budgetary amendments presented by Federal Deputies. During the year, the allocation of federal monies was quite restricted. Some analysts of Brazilian politics (Carlos Pereira and Tim Power), have actually made the claim that the disproportional allocation of resources amongst the supporting coalition, and concentration benefiting the PT, is in the essence of the difficulty in dealing with congress and the need to rely on the mensalao.
It seems though, that even amidst its most serious crisis, when the government put all of its muscle in the dispute, it came out victorious, especially because apparently it has distributed resources more proportionally amongst potential allies. Maybe that is the strategy the administration will follow in the remaining of its first, and very likely, only, term in office.